AI Doesn't Fix Your Real Bottleneck

vladik@khononov.com (Vlad Khononov) — Mon, 23 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Every other post on my feed celebrates how AI lets us write code faster: whole apps built in a matter of a few hours, 99% AI-generated codebases, hundred-fold productivity gains, and on and on. But does writing code faster actually make us more productive?

A Quick Detour Through a Factory

The Theory of Constraints says that every system’s throughput is limited by a single constraint: its bottleneck. What makes a system more effective? Improving the bottleneck. What makes a system less efficient? Improving anything else.

I know, that second part is counterintuitive. Here’s the thing: if you speed up a non-bottleneck, you don’t improve the system; you produce more work-in-progress that piles up in front of the bottleneck! More inventory. More cost. More waste. The system becomes more expensive to operate, not more productive.

This is a well-established principle in manufacturing, and software manufacturing is no exception.

With AI, everything is so complicated... and this is great news!

vladik@khononov.com (Vlad Khononov) — Mon, 26 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Lately I’ve been spending more and more time researching AI models and their effects on software engineering and architecture, so it’s time to share my findings.

First, let me explain what I mean by “complicated.” I’m a huge fan of the Cynefin framework. If you are not familiar with it, here is the gist.

Cynefin

Say you need to decide on something. For example, let’s assume you need to change the behavior of a software application and are contemplating how to do it.

Cynefin is a tool for guiding the decision-making process in different kinds of situations. It says that first you need to understand what kind of situation you are in, and once you do, picking the optimal course of action is much easier. For that, the framework identifies four basic situations—domains:

AI on Rants on Software Design

AI Doesn't Fix Your Real Bottleneck

A Quick Detour Through a Factory

With AI, everything is so complicated... and this is great news!

Cynefin